Battle of Armageddon: The World War 3

Abstract:

Unknown to most of us, the world is in the midst of a subtle battle of good versus evil also known as Armageddon. It is being fought mostly in the subtle dimension in all the regions of the Universe including Earth. The fraction of this battle that will play out in the physical plane will have catastrophic consequences on Earth. There is a possibility of averting or at least reducing the effect of this Armageddon on mankind if we undertake spiritual practice, which is according to the six basic principles of spiritual practice.

 

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Iran economy could limp along under sanctions

Analysis: Iran economy could limp along under sanctions

(Reuters) - Tightening international sanctions against Iran look set to shrink its economy, push up inflation and further erode its currency, but they may fail to deliver a knock-out blow that forces Tehran to compromise on its nuclear ambitions.
Few areas of Iran's economy now remain untouched by the sanctions. Because of payments difficulties, Iranian ships have in recent days stopped loading imports of Ukrainian grain. The United Arab Emirates has told its banks to stop financing Iran's trade with Dubai. Iranians are finding it more difficult to obtain hard currency to travel abroad.
But the history of sanctions against other countries, and the strengths of Iran's diverse and relatively self-reliant economy, suggest that as long as Tehran can find buyers for a large proportion of its oil, it will be able to limp along.
The pain will be felt throughout the country and could increase discontent with the government, but if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can cope with that political threat, there may be no overriding economic reason for him to back down.
"Iran can still scrape by," said Gary Hufbauer, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States and a former U.S. Treasury official who has written extensively about the history of sanctions.
He ranks the measures against Iran - taken to stop what the West sees as Tehran's nuclear ambitions - as among the toughest international sanctions of the past 50 years, but not as harsh as those once imposed on Iraq, North Korea and Cuba - countries which defied economic pressure.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
The latest sanctions focus on Iran's exports of oil and gas because they are vital to its foreign trade. In its latest comprehensive assessment of the Iranian economy, published last July, the International Monetary Fund estimated energy exports would amount to $103 billion in the fiscal year to March 20, 2012, or 78 percent of total exports.
But as a proportion of Iran's overall economy, energy exports are much smaller, only 21 percent of gross domestic product in the 2011/2012 year, according to the IMF's projections. That is lower than ratios of 30-50 percent for the Gulf Arab oil exporters, and suggests Iran is better placed than they would be to absorb a hit to energy shipments.
The European Union, which plans to halt imports of Iranian oil on July 1, has been taking a fifth of the country's shipments; other big buyers such as Japan and South Korea, each with about 10 percent, may be pressured into reducing purchases.
But China and India, which already take a combined 34 percent, have signaled they will not cut back, and such countries will end up buying most or all of the Iranian oil rejected by the EU.
Hufbauer said Iran might have to sell its oil at a discount of 10 to 15 percent to find buyers under sanctions. Assuming a 15 percent discount applied to all shipments and a 10 percent cut in overall shipments, Iran's energy export earnings would shrink by around $24 billion -- a heavy blow, but not a crippling one for a $480 billion economy.
The sanctions do not ban most Iranian non-oil trade, but that can be expected to suffer too as the West uses tools such as anti-money laundering laws to discourage banks around the world from financing business. This may force Iran's exporters to rely more on costly middlemen in Asia and neighboring states which have not signed up to tough sanctions, such as Iraq, and conceivably to use barter deals for some trade.
If non-oil exports take the same kind of hit as energy shipments, they could decline by about $7 billion from the IMF's estimate for this fiscal year. The combined hit to trade would be around $31 billion, or 6.5 percent of GDP -- enough to push the economy, which the IMF has projected will grow 2.5 percent this year in inflation-adjusted terms, into recession.
In the long run, the damage to Iran's energy exports could increase as Western bans on the sale of equipment to its oil industry make it difficult to replace parts that wear out. This might be at least partly avoided by a determined sanctions-busting effort, of the kind run with considerable success by apartheid South Africa in the 1980s.
Hufbauer estimated that at most, the sanctions against Iran would cut its GDP by 10 percent. That is about the same impact as North Korea suffered, and below 20 percent for Iraq, he said.
BUDGET DEFICIT
With oil providing about two-thirds of government revenues, the sanctions will undermine Iran's state finances. The IMF estimated Iran would post a budget surplus of about 2.8 percent of GDP this fiscal year; the fall in oil revenues, combined with a 10 percent cut in tax receipts due to a slower economy, could convert that into a deficit of over 2 percent of GDP next year.
That could be troublesome for a highly indebted government. Iran's government is financially strong, however; general government gross debt is just 9 percent of GDP, compared to levels approaching 100 percent or more for many EU countries.
Iran's low debt means it could easily finance much sharper deterioration in the budget balance through selling domestic bonds or other measures, said Raza Agha, Middle East and North Africa economist at British bank RBS.
"The public finance impact seems manageable in the immediate future given the bulwark of public sector deposits and other domestic financing options available to the government."
MOST VULNERABLE
It is in the link between Iran's balance of payments, currency and inflation that the economy looks most vulnerable. The IMF estimated Iran would post a balance of payments surplus of $31 billion this fiscal year; the drop in export earnings due to sanctions could wipe that out next year or even push Iran into an external deficit.
Normally, Iran's foreign exchange reserves could cover the deficit comfortably; the IMF estimated the central bank's net foreign assets at $104 billion this fiscal year. Although the EU has said it will freeze Iranian central bank assets under its jurisdiction, Iran has had plenty of time to move its reserves out of Europe and other U.S. allies.
But a surge in Iranian inflation is complicating the picture. The official inflation rate has jumped from single digits to around 20 percent in the past 18 months; analysts think the real rate is higher. The rise is mostly because of economic reforms which cut energy and food subsidies at the end of 2010, but also because sanctions make imports more expensive.
High inflation is adding a collapse of confidence in the Iranian rial, boosting its black market rate to above 20,000 to the dollar last month from roughly half that level a year ago.
That threatens to accelerate capital outflows from Iran, which the IMF originally projected at $11 billion this fiscal year, and deplete foreign reserves much faster than would otherwise have been the case.
It could also boost imported inflation further. Iran has shown it can operate with high inflation -- the rate was above 25 percent as recently as the 2008/09 year -- and since imports are worth only about 16 percent of GDP, currency depreciation will not necessarily boost inflation drastically. But there is a risk that in the minds of Iranian businessmen and the public, expectations for a weak currency and rising inflation will become mutually reinforcing.
After months of hesitation, Iranian authorities acted aggressively in late January to try to stabilize the rial, raising interest rates on long-term bank deposits as high as 21 percent from a range of 12.5-15.5 percent. That may have eased pressure on the currency for now, but the pressure may mount again when the EU's oil sanctions kick in later this year.
"The currency crisis will probably continue. Ahmadinejad's political aversion to high interest rates, and the high level of disorganization and inefficiency in the government make a comprehensive policy response to the currency crisis unlikely," political risk consultants Eurasia Group said in a report.

Oil boom brews in rural Kansas

U.S. growth rate lowered

U.S. growth rate lowered 

By Chris Isidore May 31, 2012: 10:02 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- 

The nation's economy grew at a slower pace than previously reported in the first three months of this year, raising new concerns about economic weakness.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The rate was lowered from the 2.2% growth rate originally reported in April, and significantly slower than the 3% growth rate in the final three months of last year.

10 largest economies

The current growth rate is widely considered to be weak. A growth rate of about 3% is what economists typically expect will lead employers to engage in the kind of significant hiring needed to make a dent in unemployment.

On Friday, the government will release the closely watched May jobs report. Analysts surveyed by CNNMoney expect that the U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs in May, including 12,000 government job cuts. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 8.1%.

Jobs market looks dismal in May

Despite the reduced rate of growth, the U.S. economy is significantly stronger than Europe's, as both the 27 nations of the European Union and the 17-nation Eurozone had no growth in the first quarter. There are 11 European countries where GDP has declined for two or more straight quarters, the common description of a recession.

The U.S. growth trails the economic expansion in many emerging markets, such as China, now the world's No. 2 economy. China's GDP grew at an 8.1% annual rate in the first quarter. India's GDP grew at a 5.3% rate in the first quarter.

Growth in both of those major emerging economies was significantly slower than at the end of last year.

Spending by U.S. consumers, which makes up more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, was somewhat stronger than overall growth, rising at a 2.7% annual rate. Demand for big-ticket items, such as automobiles, drove much of that increase, as those purchases increased at nearly a 15% annual rate.

But government spending fell in the quarter, shaving nearly 0.8 percentage point off growth. Spending by businesses was also weak, as investment in equipment and software added only 0.3 percentage point, the smallest contribution to growth by that bellwether reading since the second quarter of 2009, when the U.S. economy was still in recession.

Where the jobs are: Brazil

The slow growth is expected to continue in the United States for the foreseeable future. The Federal Reserve currently forecasts a growth of between 2.2% to 2.7% for all of 2012. While it expects slightly better growth in 2013 and 2014, the Fed's long-term forecast is for annual growth is between 2.3% to 2.6%.

Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank, said he believes that stronger growth is possible later in the year, which is what happened in 2011. He points to the recent drop in oil and gasoline prices as one factor that could provide a lift.

"That acts like a big tax cut for households and businesses," he said.

But he said such growth could be derailed by problems with European sovereign debt, which many experts fear could quickly spread like a contagion. LaVorgna said just the uncertainty about Europe could limit growth for at least a little longer.

"It seems to me for the near term, we might be stuck in 2% purgatory," he said.

The problem of Europe teetering on the cusp of recession likely slowed growth in both the United States and China in the first quarter, since Europe is a major market for exports from both countries. Trade with other countries, which added to U.S. GDP last year despite the trade gap, trimmed about 0.1 percentage point off first-quarter growth. 

First Published: May 31, 2012: 8:45 AM ET

New Delhi Attack Tests India's Relations With Iran

By AMOL SHARMA And DIKSHA SAHNI

NEW DELHI—Israeli accusations that Iran was behind an attack on a diplomat in New Delhi are contributing to international pressure on India to back away from its friendly ties with Tehran and curb its consumption of Iranian oil.

Most immediately, the incident puts India in the position of trying to maintain friendly ties with two bitter enemies, Israel and Iran.

India enjoys strong relations with Israel, which is one of its defense suppliers. But the energy-hungry country also has robust trade ties with Iran: It is one of Iran's largest crude oil buyers and has irked the U.S. and other Western nations by resisting pressure to cut back on those purchases.

Those dynamics could make things uncomfortable for Indian officials as the investigation moves forward into who directed Monday's attack, and suspicion of Iran grows following explosions in Bangkok Tuesday in which an Iranian national appeared to have prematurely set off explosives.

Israel accused Iran and its militant ally Hezbollah for the attacks in Delhi and Bangkok and an explosive found in an Israeli diplomat's car in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Indian officials have reserved judgment on who was behind the attack in New Delhi. "At the moment I'm not pointing the finger at any particular group or organization, but whoever did it, we condemn it in the strongest terms," Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram said.

Iranian officials denied Iran was behind the Delhi and Tbilisi attacks, but haven't commented on the Bangkok explosions.

If Indian investigators ultimately determine Iran was involved in the attack, there would be enormous domestic and international pressure on India to back away from supporting Iran and even curb its oil purchases, analysts say.

"It won't be easy for India to just snap its ties with Iran, but whatever happened yesterday adds to the pressure," said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research. He said India could become a "proxy battleground" amid tensions between the West and Iran.

An Israeli official said the stakes are higher for India to charge Iran with a role in a terrorist attack on its soil. "If India says what [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu says, it entails a big change in policy and they have to think it through," the official said. "That brings things to a whole different level between India and Iran. That's not something you can do in a day."

A spokesman for India's Ministry of External Affairs said in response that India had no evidence on which to blame Iran. "That is entirely false and in no way depicts reality," he said.

Mustafa Quraishi/Associated Press

Security and forensic officials examining the car after the explosion

Though Israel has urged India to stop buying oil from Iran, the Israeli official said Israel hasn't let New Delhi's refusal "spoil the good relations between Israel and India.…They have a right to continue their own policy.''

India imported 550,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran in January, making it Iran's largest crude customer, ahead of China, whose imports have dropped because of a pricing dispute.

International sanctions on Iran, including a U.S.-led crackdown on dealings with the country's financial institutions, disrupted payments by Indian companies last year, but the two countries have worked to find ways around the impasse.

The U.S. hasn't joined Israel in openly accusing Iran in connection with Monday's attacks. But if Indian police reach the same conclusion, it is likely to enhance the case that India should reconsider doing business with Tehran in support of global efforts to force Iran into negotiations about its nuclear program.

The India-Iran relationship is a source of frustration in Washington. India "seems to be rebuking the sanctions and looking for workarounds," including transactions in gold and other detours for the oil payments, said Sen. Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, at a U.S. Senate hearing on Feb. 7 for the confirmation of Indian Ambassador-nominee Nancy Powell.

Sen. Menendez said India's actions are "helping the Iranian government have the resources to fuel their nuclear ambitions."

Ms. Powell told the senator the matter is "one of those that I will be dealing with very seriously and very early in my tenure." She added, "India shares with us a desire to see a nonnuclear state in Iran."

Meanwhile, New Delhi has burgeoning ties with Israel to tend to. India's defense purchases from Israel—part of a high-priority modernization of the country's armed forces after decades of neglect—include surface-to-air missiles and surveillance and missile defense technology. The countries also share the experience of being frequent targets of terrorist attacks.

In Monday's attack, a motorcyclist planted a magnetic explosive on a car carrying a woman who works at the Israeli Embassy's defense section and is the wife of Israel's deputy defense attaché, Indian police said. The car burst into flames, injuring the Israeli woman, her driver and two people nearby.

Indian investigators were chasing down leads and scanning CCTV footage to try to identify the motorcycle driver, said Mr. Chidambaram, the Indian home minister. "It was quite clear that a very well-trained person has committed this attack," he said.

Graham Crouch/Bloomberg News

P. Chidambaram in New Delhi, Feb. 1.

Israel is cooperating closely with Indian investigators, said David Goldfarb, a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi. "We always have good connections and cooperation with the Indian authorities and naturally after an event like this that only increases," he said.

The Israeli Embassy employee who was targeted in the Monday blast, Tal Yehoshua, was traveling to pick up her children from the American School when the explosion happened not far from the embassy, according to Indian authorities.

She was admitted to a Delhi hospital and underwent successful surgery to remove shrapnel from near her spine, a hospital official said. She was in critical but stable condition in the intensive-care unit and was expected to remain hospitalized for several more days, the official said. Three other people injured in the blast, including Ms. Yehoshua's driver, were treated at another hospital and released Monday, an official said.

Iran: A test for U.S.-India relations

Editor's Note: Jeff M. Smith is the Kraemer Strategy Fellow and director of the South Asia program at the American Foreign Policy Council.  Sarah McKeever is a Research Associate at the Council.

By Jeff M. Smith and Sarah McKeever – Special to CNN

In the aftermath of the landmark U.S.-India nuclear deal passed in 2008, Washington and New Delhi have deftly navigated the periodic irritants that plague all great power relations.  Thanks to admirable efforts in both capitals, a post-nuclear deal hangover has not succeeded in fraying the bonds forged over the past decade, despite disputes over visa restrictions, lost arms contracts, and differences over America’s Af-Pak strategy.  But it was only a matter of time before India’s ongoing relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran presented a materially more serious challenge to bilateral ties.  With the advent of spring, the West’s standoff with Tehran over its rogue nuclear program is heating up, just as India is testing new avenues for cooperation with the pariah regime.  Without serious attention from both sides, this disconnect risks creating an enduring rift between the world’s largest and oldest democracies.

New Delhi spent the better part of the 21^st century performing a delicate balancing act with Iran.  On the one hand, India sides firmly with the international community in opposing Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon. Tehran’s passion for revolutionary Islamist fundamentalism is anathema to most Indians, as is the country’s periodic agitation over independence for Kashmiri Muslims.  And as an aspiring permanent member of the U.N. Security Council - and the current holder the body’s rotating presidency - India has an interest in establishing credentials as a responsible global power.

On the other hand, India is dependent on Iran for 10-12% of its oil imports and remains stubbornly tethered to Cold War principles of non-alignment. The specter of being painted as an American puppet still haunts Indian politicians. And New Delhi has a history of cooperation with Tehran in opposing the Taliban in Afghanistan and has sought to use Iran as an alternative trade and energy conduit to Central Asia, bypassing rival Pakistan.

India has tried to navigate these contradictions by charting a middle way. It has voted alternately with and against Iran at the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); aligning itself with mandatory international sanctions on Tehran but straying from voluntary Western financial restrictions.  Until now, the tight-rope act has worked, thanks in no small part to a remarkably broad and bi-partisan pro-India caucus in Washington. But nothing quite excites passions in the nation’s capital like Iran’s rogue nuclear program.

On January 29, Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee provoked ire on Capitol Hill by proclaiming India “will not decrease imports from Iran,” during a two-day trip to the U.S.  The announcement was followed by news in early February that India was circumventing Western sanctions on Iran by paying for 45% of its oil imports in rupees and finding alternative ways to insure shipping lines transporting Iranian crude. In early March India dispatched Commerce Minister Anand Sharma to Iran with a large trade delegation of 70 business and government representatives. And on March 29 fourteen countries will meet in New Delhi in an attempt to revive the North-South Corridor, which could elevate Iran as a key transit hub for New Delhi’s trade with Eurasia.  Finally, in perhaps the most troubling development, the Indian government seemed to downplay Tehran’s links to a February 13 bomb attack in New Delhi targeting Israeli diplomats and bearing the hallmarks of Iran’s unique breed of state-sponsored terrorism.

U.S. Congressional leaders showered the Indian embassy in letters of protest.  Longtime Indophile stalwarts like Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State in the Bush administration, warned India that its government “is now actively impeding the construction of the strategic relationship it says it wants with the U.S.”  In Israel - by some counts India’s largest supplier of military hardware - questions were raised about the suppression of evidence in the New Delhi bomb attack.

Even India’s critics should sympathize with its economic conundrum. Bilateral trade with Iran now stands at $14 billion. As oil prices again top $100 per barrel, India remains hamstrung by refineries equipped specifically for Iranian crude. “An automatic replacement of all Iranian oil imports, is not a simple matter of selection, or a realistic option,” explains the Indian embassy in Washington. A challenging economic outlook further restricts India’s options: GDP growth for the last quarter was recently revised down to 6.1% while inflation remains too high, and FDI too low. The rupee fell 15% last year.

But these constraints do not absolve India from all responsibility.  New Delhi seems remiss in acknowledging that compelling Iran to abandon its nuclear program through economic pressure may be the best - and for some, the only - alternative to military force.  At the very least, New Delhi should strongly reaffirm its opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapon and follow through on a full and transparent investigation of the February bombing in New Delhi.  Recent breakthroughs in the case may conclusively implicate Iran, as details emerge about an Iranian terrorist cell with global reach.  (Thai authorities have already fingered Tehran for involvement in a similar attack launched in Bangkok the same day and Malaysian authorities have arrested an Iranian linked to the case).

Most important, India can begin implementing a strategy to reduce dependence on Iranian oil.  There are early signs this process is underway.  On February 23, Indian Oil Minister Jaipal Reddy said his country had requested that Saudi Arabia, India’s largest supplier of crude, increase oil shipments from 27 to 32 million tons of crude per year for 2012-2013.  In March an Indian spokesman admitted “crude imports from Iran constitute a declining share of India’s oil imports.”  Meanwhile, Indian refineries recently reported coming under pressure from the government to reduce imports of Iranian oil by 10%.  And India’s MRPL, the country’s largest refiner of Iranian oil, is reportedly planning a “drastic reduction in volumes from Iran,” from 150,000 bpd to 80,000 bpd.   "In a number of cases, both on their government side and on their business side, they are taking actions that go further and deeper than perhaps their public statements might lead you to believe," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a congressional hearing on February 28.

Washington should never shy away from making the Iranian nuclear program a high priority in relations with New Delhi, though it should recognize that on sensitive issues, diplomacy with New Delhi is always more effective through private channels.  India has never proven responsive to public demands. Better to offer the country further diplomatic and economic incentives to diversify its oil imports and upgrade its refineries. For its part, India, which has often received preferential treatment from the U.S., must better understand that Iran’s nuclear program constitutes a bold red line for many of its allies in Washington.  It will take sustained efforts from both sides to bridge the gap over Iran’s nuclear program and prevent Tehran from undermining this promising partnership.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Jeff M. Smith and Sarah McKeever.

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Supreme Court dismisses WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange's extradition appeal

Julian Assange's appeal against extradition to Sweden over sex crime allegations has been dismissed by the Supreme Court on a majority verdict.  

10:36AM BST 30 May 2012 

 The founder of the WikiLeaks whistle-blowing website, accused of the sex attacks by two former volunteers, had argued that the European Arrest Warrant issued for him was invalid because it was made by prosecutors rather than a judge.The Supreme Court, Britain's highest court, on Wednesday rejected his claim in a ruling made by a 5-2 majority of senior judges.Lord Phillips, the president of the court, said 'judicial authority' could mean a prosecutor.But lawyers for the maverick Australian, responsible for the publication of thousands of American diplomatic cables and sensitive military files, indicated they may try to have the case reopened.They said it was decided on a point not raised in the hearing, and were given 14 days to lodge a claim.

Julian Assange: a profile of the Wikileaks founder

Julian Assange, the founder of the whistle-blowing website Wikileaks, has lost his latest battle against extradition to Sweden but who is the man once described as the elusive Scarlet Pimpernel of cyberspace?

Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks 

9:44AM BST 30 May 2012

Assange, 40, had an unconventional upbringing. Born and raised in Australia, his parents met at a demonstration against the Vietnam War and instilled in their son a sense of rebellion.

He attended 37 different schools as a child, moving often because his parents ran a touring theatre company, and went on to study pure maths and physics at university. Reports in Australia claim that he left home at 17 and spent some time sleeping rough in Melbourne.

But the internet was his one true passion and he became part of the computer underground in his late teens, learning to hack into email accounts belonging to the rich and influential and mine their secrets.

After publishing an expose on physicists selling research to military and intelligence agencies, he went on to found Wikileaks in 2007. The site describes itself as the "uncensorable Wikipedia for untraceable mass document leaking and analysis" and has grown to be regarded as the most extensive and safest platforms to which whistleblowers can leak.

It publishes documents that allege government and corporate misconduct, bypassing mainstream media and delivering previously top secret information straight to the public domain.

The non-profit website is run by a loose band of volunteers and goes to extraordinary lengths to protect the identity of its sources.
It came to worldwide notice after the publication of a secret video taken in 2007 of a US helicopter attack in Iraq that killed a dozen civilians, including two unarmed Reuters journalists.
Despite the dominance of the website, Assange was initially a shadowy figure who shunned the limelight and was rarely seen in public.
With what he might remember bitterly, he used to often pop up in Sweden, because its laws protect internet anonymity.
However, he has become far more high-profile recently, due to his battles with the courts after the sexual assault allegations were disclosed.
Something of a nomad, Assange carries a desktop computer and clothes in his rucksack. His travels are funded by money "made on the internet". Recognisable by his shock of white hair, he still grants few interviews to the media and shrugs off criticism that some of his leaks are militarily sensitive.
"When governments stop torturing and killing people, and when corporations stop abusing the legal system, then perhaps it will be time to ask if free-speech activists are accountable," he said.

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drone war in Afghanistan is destroying the West's reputation

It may seem painless, but drone war in Afghanistan is destroying the West's reputation

A new phase of secret, unaccountable and illegal warfare is being deployed by General Petraeus and the CIA.

In the US, drone strikes are a good thing. In Pakistan, it is impossible to overestimate the anger and distress they cause. Almost all Pakistanis feel that they are personally under attack, and that America tramples on their precarious national sovereignty Photo: EPA

By Peter Oborne

7:51PM BST 30 May 2012

The theory and practice of warfare has evolved with amazing speed since al-Qaeda’s attack on mainland America in September, 2001. In less than 11 years it is already possible to discern three separate phases.

First, we had the era of ground invasion followed by military occupation. This concept, which feels terribly 20th-century today, appeared at first to work well, with the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan followed by the easy destruction of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

But by 2005, it was obvious that the strategy was failing. The resurgence of the Taliban, and the success of the Iraqi insurgencies, led to an urgent reassessment. In desperation, the United States turned to the more sophisticated methodology once favoured by the British and before them the Romans – the elaboration of a system of alliances, otherwise known as “divide and rule”.

This was the second phase, the “surge” of 2007, which made the reputation of General David Petraeus and rescued the second Bush presidency from disaster. Of greater significance than the temporary increase in troop numbers on the ground was the decision by the Western Iraqi tribes, encouraged by the payment of enormous bribes, to detach themselves, at least temporarily, from al-Qaeda.

The same tactics did not work, however, when duplicated two years later in Afghanistan – and so US policy has unobtrusively moved into a third phase: a new and as yet only partially understood doctrine of secret, unaccountable and illegal warfare.

The guiding force has once again been General Petraeus, who is already being tipped as favourite to win the Republican nomination in the 2016 presidential elections. Appointed director of the CIA last summer, he is converting the intelligence agency into a paramilitary organisation. Conventional military forces are scarcely relevant: it is Petraeus who now masterminds what George Bush used to call the “war on terror” from the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

President Obama has reportedly allowed his CIA chief to deepen the connection between Special Forces and secret intelligence, a potentially unconstitutional move because it can mean that military operations are no longer answerable to Congress. More important still, the CIA also seems to mastermind and direct the drone strikes which have suddenly become the central element of US (and therefore British) military strategy.

Even 10 years ago, drones – remotely operated killing machines – were unthinkable because they seemed to spring direct from the imagination of a deranged science-fiction movie director. But today they dominate. Already, more US armed forces personnel are being trained as drone operators (computer geeks who sit in front of a computer screen somewhere in the mid-west of America doling out real-life death and destruction) than air force pilots.

It is easy to understand why. First of all, they can be deadly accurate. Tribal Afghans have been amazed not just that the car a Taliban leader was travelling in was precisely targeted – but that the missile went in through the door on the side he was sitting. The US claims that drones have proved very effective at targeting and killing Taliban or al-Qaeda leaders, but with the very minimum of civilian casualties.

Second, US soldiers and airmen are not placed in harm’s way. This is very important in a democracy. In America, the killing of a dozen military personnel is a political event. The death of a dozen Afghan or Pakistani villagers in a remote part of what used to be called the north‑west frontier does not register, unless a US military spokesmen labels them “militants”, in which case it becomes a victory.

There is no surprise, then – as the New York Times revealed in an important article on Tuesday – that Mr Obama “has placed himself at the helm of a top secret 'nominations’ process to designate terrorists for kill or capture, of which the capture part has become largely theoretical”.

The least enviable task of an old-fashioned British home secretary was to sign the death warrant for convicted murderers. According to the New York Times, the President has taken these exquisite agonies one stage further: “When a rare opportunity for a drone strike at a top terrorist arises, but his family is with him, it is the President who has reserved to himself the final moral calculation.”

So, in the US, drone strikes are a good thing. In Pakistan, from where I write this, it is impossible to overestimate the anger and distress they cause. Almost all Pakistanis feel that they are personally under attack, and that America tramples on their precarious national sovereignty. There are good reasons for this. When, last year in Lahore, an out-of-control CIA operative shot dead two reportedly unarmed Pakistanis, and his follow-up car ran over and killed a third, the American was spirited out of the country.

Meanwhile, America refuses to apologise for killing 24 Pakistani servicemen in a botched ISAF operation. This is election year and Mr Obama, having apologised already over Koran-burning, may be nervous about a second apology, and has therefore confined himself to an expression of “regret”.

I am told by a number of credible sources that this refusal to behave decently – allied to dismay at the use of drones as the weapon of default in tribal areas – is the reason for the unusual decision of the US ambassador in Islamabad, Cameron Munter, to step down after less than two years in his post. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – increasingly irrelevant and marginalised in an administration dominated by the partnership between Leon Panetta, the Secretary of Defence, and Petraeus – has protested but been ignored.

We need a serious public debate on drones. They are still in their infancy, but have already changed the nature of warfare. The new technology points the way, within just a few decades, to a battlefield where soldiers never die or even risk their lives, and only alleged enemies of the state, their family members, and civilians die in combat – a world straight out of the mouse’s tale in Alice in Wonderland: “ 'I’ll be judge, I’ll be jury’, said cunning old Fury. 'I’ll try the whole cause and condemn you to death.’ ” Justice as dealt out by drones cannot be reconciled with the rule of law which we say we wish to defend.

Supporters of drones – and they make up practically the entire respectable political establishment in Britain and the US – argue that they are indispensable in the fight against al-Qaeda. But plenty of very experienced voices have expressed profound qualms. The former army officer David Kilcullen, one of the architects of the 2007 Iraqi surge, has warned that drone attacks create more extremists than they eliminate. Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, Britain’s former special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, is equally adamant that drone attacks are horribly counter-productive because of the hatred they have started to generate: according to a recent poll, more than two thirds of Pakistanis regard the United States as an enemy. Britain used to be popular and respected in this part of the world for our wisdom and decency. Now, thanks to our refusal to challenge American military doctrine, we are hated, too.

India and Pakistan Gas project

Turkmenistan agrees to sell gas to India and Pakistan

After nearly 10 years of negotiations, Turkmenistan has signed a deal to supply India and Pakistan with gas.

Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan Photo: REX

By James Kilner, Central Asia correspondent

9:36AM BST 24 May 2012

The deal means construction can start on one of the longest and most ambitious pipelines ever planned, stretching more than 1,000 miles from Turkmenistan in former Soviet Central Asia across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.

At a ceremony on Wednesday in the Turkmen Caspian Sea resort of Avaza, Baimurad Hojamukhamedov, the Turkmen deputy prime minister, said this was an important day for the region’s development.

“The implementation of this project will give a powerful impetus to the social and economic development of all the participant countries,” Reuters news agency quoted him as saying.

While politicians have talked up the potential benefits to the regional economy of the pipeline, the obstacles are very evident.

The middle section of the pipeline, dubbed Tapi after its route, runs through Afghanistan which has been ravished by war and chronic under investment for decades. Analysts warned that building a pipeline through Afghanistan was a hugely ambitious undertaking.

“With the Western troops' pullout by 2014 from the still volatile Afghanistan building an expensive pipeline in country with very weak central government seems almost unattainable,” said Lilit Gevorgyan, the Russia/ CIS Country Analyst at IHS Global Insight.
At its peak, the pipeline will pump 33 billion cubic metres of gas a year to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
The deal is also significant for Turkmenistan which continues to cement its position as one of Asia’s most important gas exporters.
Over the past few years, the Turkmen government has signed large gas supply deals with China and has been courted by the European Union which wants Turkmenistan to pump gas through a proposed energy corridor from the Caspian Sea to central Europe.
While Turkmenistan has positioned itself as one of the region’s most important energy exporters, Pakistan and India are net importers.
A version of the Tapi project was first proposed a decade ago, but rows over the projects feasibility, war in Afghanistan and the price of gas had delayed a final deal.
Now that a gas deal has been signed, construction can begin on the pipeline which, according to Reuters, analysts have estimated will cost between £6.4 billion to £7.5 billion.

US Voters agree George W Bush left Barack Obama with a mess

John Bolton: US Voters agree George W Bush left Barack Obama with a mess

American voters agree with President Barack Obama's claim that he inherited "a mess" from George W. Bush, according to John Bolton, one of Mr Bush's best-known former colleagues.

John Bolton said, when faced with the prospect of re-electing Mr Obama, 'people are saying OK, you inherited a mess, well what have you done to fix it?'  Photo: Reuters

By Jon Swaine, Dallas

7:18PM BST 30 May 2012

John Bolton, Mr Bush's ambassador to the United Nations, said it would not be helpful for the Republicans to more vigorously defend the former president's record, which Democrats have sharply criticised.

Mr Bolton urged Mitt Romney, the party's nominee to face Mr Obama in November, to focus on the future and resist arguing over whether their last president left behind "a big mess or a little mess".

His remarks came as Mr Bush prepared to return to the White House for only the second time since leaving office in January 2009, for the unveiling of his official portrait.

"I think people would agree with Obama that he was left with a mess," Mr Bolton told The Daily Telegraph. "They're not arguing about that, and that's why it doesn't pay for Romney to argue whether it was a big mess or a little mess.

Instead, Mr Bolton said, when faced with the prospect of re-electing Mr Obama, "people are saying OK, you inherited a mess, well what have you done to fix it?"

The former UN envoy praised Mr Bush's decision to stay out of politics since leaving Washington, and said that his standing would "get better and better" as time elapsed.

"Most Americans, when they vote for president, treat it as a question of looking forward," he said. "So from Romney's point of view there's no real point in re-arguing the Bush presidency. It ought to be on whether Obama has been successful".
Mr Obama has in recent weeks heaped blame on his predecessor for bestowing the current administration with what he now claims were too many problems in foreign and economic policy to deal with in a single term.

"Hillary and I, we've spent the last three and a half years cleaning up after other folks' messes," Mr Obama told a fund-raiser last month. Robert Gibbs, a senior adviser to Mr Obama, said that Mr Romney's campaign could be summarised as: "You didn't clean up our mess fast enough".
Andrew Card, Mr Bush's former White House chief of staff, said that the tactic "doesn't seem very presidential". Mr Card said: "Most presidents take office and recognise that they have a job to do, and respect their predecessors".
A recent CNN poll found 56 per cent of voters continued to blame Mr Bush and the Republicans for the country's economic problems, while only 29 per cent blamed Mr Obama and the Democrats. Only Richard Nixon ranked lower than Mr Bush in a Gallup poll on the last eight presidents earlier this year.

Homosexuality

Homosexuality, Orthodox Judaism and shaving

Matisyahu and Y-love are engaged with their religious journeys. It’s time that we all began our own.

By Dr. Samuel Lebens / Jewish World blogger May.23, 2012 | 6:19 PM |

Yitz Jordan, known as Y-Love, converted to Judaism in 2000. Photo by Courtesy of Shemspeed

A self-portrait posted by Matisyahu on Twitter announcing he had shaved his beard. Photo by Matisyahu

 
Yitz Jordan has been known by a number of names. His stage name is Y-love, but he’s been known as the African-American Hassidic Rapper, and the African-American Ex-Hassidic Rapper. He has now come out of the closet, and will inevitably be known as the Gay African-American Ex-Hassidic Rapper. In the relatively small world of Religiously Jewish Pop Music, Yitz Jordan is likely to be compared to Matisyahu: born Mathew Miller, he became Matisyahu, the Lubavitch reggae star, and metamorphosed into the post-Lubavitch, neo-Hassidic pop-rock star. He then posted an infamous photo on twitter of his newly de-bearded face, declaring, “No more Chassidic reggae superstar. Sorry folks, all you get is me”.

Within Orthodoxy, there are those who still promote the notion of “curing” people of their homosexuality. This stance is becoming harder to defend. The most respectable research supporting the notion of “treatment” for unwanted “same-sex desire” has just been retracted by its eminent author, who has become convinced of its unreliably. Homosexuality, much like heterosexuality, is not chosen, and it can’t be changed.

Rabbis around the world routinely invite Shabbat violators to their dinner tables; they routinely invite intermarried couples, on the grounds that it’s better to keep the Jewish half of the couple close than to push them away; I have even been to synagogues and seen seemingly unrepentant adulterers being called up to the Torah. Openly gay Jews, on the other hand, don’t get too many invites. Orthodoxy is bound to view the homosexual act as a sin, but we have no excuse, other than homophobia, for the sort of isolation that our communities all too often inflict upon the openly gay.

The recent statement of principles, however, signed by many leading Orthodox educators, is a testament to the fact that progress is being made. "I fully expected to lose most of my Orthodox fan base," Y-love wrote in an e-mail to Haaretz. "Not only has this not been the case, but I am seeing an outpouring of support which has completely taken me aback". This provides us with further, refreshing, evidence that attitudes are changing within Orthodoxy.

Y-love realises that he’ll never be welcome in the ultra-Orthodox world to which he once belonged. But, he can still strive to observe Jewish law without their embrace. "Do I still perform mitzvot?” he asked, “Yes, of course; but I know that the Haredi/ultra-Orthodox world will never consider me 'observant' if I'm out.”

Why he felt he had to make his sexual preferences public is a matter for him alone. Certain desires literally define the contours of your identity. Perhaps he felt that, in the closet, he was living some sort of lie. He talks about the tensions that led him to contemplate and attempt suicide, as well as his aborted heterosexual marriage and his damaging attempts to “treat” his homosexuality psychologically. This is a man who has been and continues to go through tremendous psychological strain as he seeks to juggle his deeply held religious convictions with his most human desire to live within an intimate and loving relationship. Orthodoxy has to learn how to embrace people who are in such a situation without judging them, and, slowly slowly, with lots of hiccups along the way, I think that we, in the Modern Orthodox camp, are learning.

I want to change the focus of this discussion. I want to ask, why do we care so much about Y-love’s sexual orientation; why do we care so much about the state of Matisyahu’s facial hair? Having a clean-shaven face is not, given some qualifications, something that the Torah forbids. Nonetheless, I had a number of students talking to me, into the small hours of the morning, about their reaction to Matisyahu’s shaving. Some of them weren’t bothered at all, but some of them were deeply troubled. Why?

Matisyahu and Y-love are in the unenviable position of having their painful religious journeys followed by thousands of onlookers. Any sincere religious journey is painful. The person of faith is filled with desire for God and yet the chasm between our finitude and His infinitude often seems unbridgeable. As Rav Soloveitchik wrote, “Religion is not, at the outset, a refuge of grace and mercy for the despondent and desperate”; the religious journey “is not the royal road, but a narrow, twisting footway that threads its course along the steep mountain slope, as the terrible abyss yawns at the traveller’s feet.” So, Matisyahu and Y-love are not alone in their painful soul-searching, but unlike them, we don’t have the prying eyes of thousands of interested onlookers, as we thread our way past the abyss. We don’t have people writing blogs about us on Haaretz.

Why are we interested? Why were some of my students, who happened to be clean shaven themselves, so disturbed by a person shaving?

I grew up in a small community in England. One of the most learned rabbis that ever graced our community was a Modern Orthodox graduate of the Yeshiva in which I now study. Like me, he would, from time to time, go to the cinema. This does not stand in contradiction to any Jewish law, providing the film that you’re watching is appropriate. The same Rabbi also went to a mixed gym, the only local health training he could afford, in accordance with the advice of his doctor and his own rabbi in Israel. A certain member of the community was furious. “Rabbis shouldn’t go the gym!” I heard him declare. “Rabbi’s shouldn’t go the cinema.” Of course, the Jew in question went to the gym and the cinema himself. He just didn’t think that rabbis should do it. He had his own, albeit ill-informed, interpretation of Judaism, and though he didn’t want to live by it, he did want to make sure that the Rabbi employed by his community lived by it. For some of their fans, Matisyahu and Y-love were living their religion for them. Their twists and turns ushered all of their fans along that narrow, twisting footway with them. People were living out their religious commitments vicariously. This isn’t the job of a singer or a rapper.

When Shavuot comes this year, we stand again at the bottom of Mount Sinai. Moses can’t keep the commandments for us. That’s not his job. That kind of dependence on others leads to the creation of golden calves – Moses didn’t come down in time, so we created a replacement. Matisyahu and Y-love are engaged with their religious journeys. It’s time that we all began our own.

Iran claims to have beaten 'Flame' computer virus

Iran claims it has defeated a powerful computer virus that has boasted unprecedented data-snatching capabilities and could eavesdrop on computer users, a senior official said.

Iran's government-run Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Center has said the Flame virus was focused on espionage Photo: ALAMY

By Damien McElroy

1:19PM BST 30 May 2012

Ali Hakim Javadi, Iran's deputy Minister of Communications and Information Technology, told the official IRNA news agency that Iranian experts have already produced an antivirus capable of identifying and removing "Flame" from computers.

Iran's government-run Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Center has said the Flame virus was focused on espionage.

Javadi did not say whether any Iranian government bodies or industries were affected by the virus.

"This is no longer about stealing card data or passwords, the stakes are so much higher, and security procedures must follow suit," said James Todd, an expert in virus attacks at specialist firm, FireEye.

"The next big trend in IT security was always going to be cyber-espionage, given the potentially huge rewards for the taking. This is particularly true if hackers can infiltrate information relating to policy, patents, intellectual property and R&D plans."

Iran did not release any details of the tool to combat the most complex cyber attack. Its computer emergency response and co-ordination centre said the programme had identified and removed the malicious software.

Since Iran's nuclear facilities and oil ministry have been the target of past virus attacks, Tehran has accused the US and Israel of trying to sabotage its technological progress.

Syria dispatch

Syria dispatch: fear and hate in the killing zone of Houla

The eight vehicle convoy of UN land cruisers and Red Crescent ambulances headed down the one mile straight road towards Houla past ruined buildings towards the dead horse that lies rotting at a roundabout.

Syrian refugees take part in a demonstration against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad outside Syrian embassy in Amman Photo: Reuters

By Alex Thomson, Houla

9:02PM BST 30 May 2012

 
This macabre sight, along with an abandoned Syrian tank marked the beginning of rebel-held Houla. For a few hundred feet there was no sign of life and then quite suddenly the convoy was stopped in its tracks by a crowd that appeared from nowhere.

Women and girls joined in with the men chanting “Allahu Akbar” and “Assad, we will cut your throat” with the appropriate gesture of the finger across the throat.

I have scarcely witnessed such extraordinary scenes of people desperate to tell the world what they have been through. We were passed from family to family, house to house, by people, sometimes literally fighting to get their story to the wider world.

All norms of Muslim culture seemed forgotten as we were shown to Riya’s bed. A hauntingly beautiful 15-year-old girl was suddenly, gently rolled on to her side to expose a large dressing where a bullet had exited her abdomen. There are countless such stories. Everybody points to a group of Shia and Alawite villages to the west and east of town. Places like Kabu and Fullah which you can see clearly from the town centre. Everyone you meet says the killers came from these villages to attack the Sunni people of Houla.

They all say that the killers had written a local Shia slogan on their foreheads as they went about their business, shooting and hacking the families of Houla to death. One man spoke for many when he said: “When this is over and this is settled and we are victorious, we will kill them. We will slaughter them and we will slaughter their children. We hate them.”

Terrorist threat in Syria could be directed at Israel

Top IDF officer: Terrorist threat in Syria could be directed at Israel

Speaking at Bar-Ilan University, GOC Command chief says Israel is waging a daily and indirect war with Iran through its proxies in the region.

By Gili Cohen | May.30, 2012 | 6:42 PM |

The wreckage of a bus carrying officers and soldiers after an explosion on a road in Aleppo May 28, 2012. Photo by Reuters

 

The deterioration of Syria's central regime could lead to a growing terrorist threat against Israel, a top Israel Defense Forces official said on Wednesday, adding that Israel was fighting a daily and indirect war with Iran through its proxies in the region.

Speaking at Bar-Ilan University, GOC Northern Command chief Yair Golan said that it was his estimation that the "terrorist threat from Syria in Israel was taking shape. Will it happen as soon as tomorrow? Probably not. Is it something we must prepare for? I think so."

"It isn't hard to imagine a reality in which al-Qaida elements currently in Syria and actively working against the Syrian regime would at some point start working against us," Golan added, saying the vacuum created in Syria could turn the country into an operational base for Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah.

Golan also reiterated concerns voiced in the past as to the future of Syria's reported stockpile of weapons of mass destruction amid civil unrest in the country.

"Syria has a substantial and powerful arsenal, some of which is very advanced, from surface-to-air missiles, sea-to-surface missiles, to chemical weapons. What will happen to that arsenal? What will be the fate of this stockpile in a failing country, with a lack of an effective regime?" Golan asked.

The IDF official also spoke at length about the current position of Hezbollah, saying the militant group was split between three "personalities": as an authentic voice for Shi'ite Lebanon and protector for the country; as a force in the fight against Israel; and as an extension of Iran's Islamic revolution.

"Today Hezbollah is in an awkward position. The resistance [against Israel] has a heavy price, as was evident in 2006. With all of our dissatisfaction from the IDF's operative level during the Second Lebanon War, the strategic achievement is significant. We have been enjoying quiet unlike any we have experienced since 1968."

However, Golan, added, that achievement was not the "end of the line. In the meantime, [Hezbollah] is building its power to an unprecedented level for a terror or guerilla group."

Referring to Israel's standoff with Iran, Golan said that Israel was "indirectly waging a daily war with Iran."

"It doesn't matter if it's through [Islamic] Jihad in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is here, and its negative influence is significant. It isn't a question of 'maybe.' Its influence in Syria too is discernable."

Iran wants to control Mideast while supporting Syria massacre

Israeli official: Iran wants to control Mideast while supporting Syria massacre

Responding to remarks by Iran's parliamentary speaker that western military intervention in Syria would 'bury' Israel, the official asks: Imagine what Iran would do if it had nuclear weapons.

By Barak Ravid | May.31, 2012 | 8:56 AM

The bodies of people whom anti-government protesters say were killed by government security forces lie on the ground in Houla, near Homs May 26, 2012. Photo by Reuters

A senior Israeli official said on Thursday that Iran is supporting mass-murder in Syria, and trying to control the Mideast region, even though it does not yet have nuclear capabilities.

The official was responding to remarks by Iran's parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani on Wednesday, who warned that a western military intervention in war-torn Syria to depose President Bashar Assad will result in a regional upheaval that would undoubtedly engulf Israel.

"Iran is trying to manage the Middle East at the same time as it is supporting mass murder in Syria, all this is happening without nuclear capability. Imagine what would happen if the Iranian's would have nuclear weapons," the official said.

On Wednesday, in what seemed to be an explicit threat against the consequences that military action could have on Israel, Larijani said that violence from Syria "will spread into Palestine and the ashes of such flame will definitely bury the Zionist regime."

Larijani spoke following a massacre in the Syrian city of Houla, which garnered severe criticism in the West.

Larijani's comments came after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned civilian deaths in the Syrian crisis, adding, however that the West and certain Arab countries were interfering in Syria and sending weapons to help bring down the government.

"We cannot trust these people because their objective is to bring down Assad," he said.

Russia said on Wednesday that the UN Security Council should not consider new measures to resolve the crisis in Syria at this point and signaled it would block any effort to authorize military intervention, the Interfax news agency reported.

The U.S. ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, said on on Wednesday that it is unlikely that the Assad regime will halt the violence and follow the UN-led peace plan to resolve the crisis in the country. She told MSNBC that Iran is actively supporting Syria, and added that the conflict in Syria is of "a different character with much broader regional implications should it continue to spin out of control.”

The warnings came after the French President Francois Hollande said military intervention was not ruled out provided it was backed by the Security Council, and Germany said it would push for "new engagement" by the council on Syria.

Ali Safdar 2012

(1) Aye Jannat-ul-Baqeeh

(2) Aye Bint-e-Payambar

(3) Ya Ibn az Zahra S.A

(4) Payumbar Ko Pursa

(5) Mushkil Kusha Roney Lagey

(6) Imroz_Roz-e-Rehlat

(7) Hasnain A.S Alwida

(8) Hay Mazlooma s.a